McCain? Really?

I'm going to make up some numbers here, but you'll get the gist. This weekend I watched This Week like I usually do - recording it and skipping the first half hour or rehearsed sound bites to get to the round table. During that exchange some figures came out about how Obama still hasn't convinced die hard Hilary fans to vote for him, that something like 20% of Clinton voters still say they would not vote for Obama, and that of that group 50% were undecided and 50% would actually vote for McCain.

McCain? Really? What is it they say about a woman scorned?

First, lets spin that number and say that 80% of former Clinton supporters are now Obama supporters. Already it looks like a sunny day with not a cloud in the sky.

Second, I think there are a bunch of people out there lying to pollsters, or perhaps lying to themselves and infecting the polls. My unprofessional analysis of these poorly recalled stats? Of the 50% of the 20% saying they are "undecided" 100% will vote for Obama. These are Democrats who when the time comes know that a vote for Obama is a vote for their party and a furthering of their social goals. Who are they looking at? Bob Barr? Ron Paul? When given the choice they will vote for Obama.

The other 50% of the 20%, the "going to vote for McCain" people? I would wager heavily that 50% of that group will vote for Obama, for the same reasons stated above. The other 50% of the of the 50% of the 20%, I bet 95% of them stay home. They're mad, and they're sulking, but they aren't stupid, and they aren't self-destructive. When the time comes they will get all George Carlin on us and decide they can't criticize what they willingly participate in and they will go to the movies on Election day.

Who's left? 5% of 50% of 50% of 20%? That's 0.25%. I think probably that's well within the margin of error. But if it isn't I believe that if one quarter of 1% of former Clinton supporters do vote for McCain - well, frankly, nobody should care.